In the world of college football, where every game can make or break a team's season, the concept of luck plays a significant role. The 2025 season was no exception, with several teams experiencing more than their fair share of good and bad fortune. This article delves into the teams that benefited and suffered the most from one-score games, and how these outcomes might shape the 2026 season.
One thing that immediately stands out is the impact of one-score games on a team's overall record. Teams that win close games tend to have better overall records, as they are more consistent in their performance. However, this doesn't mean that winning close games is a guarantee of success. In fact, it can be more of a reflection of a team's ability to execute in high-leverage situations rather than a true indicator of their overall strength.
From my perspective, what makes this topic particularly fascinating is the interplay between luck and skill. While some teams may have been lucky in their one-score wins, others were simply unable to execute their game plan effectively. This raises a deeper question: how much of a team's success or failure can be attributed to luck, and how much to their own abilities?
One team that stands out as a potential regression candidate is Arizona State. The Sun Devils had a strong showing in one-score games, going 5-1 in conference play. However, their wins were often narrow, with an average margin of just 1.5 points per game. This suggests that their success may have been more a result of luck than a consistent ability to outplay their opponents.
In contrast, teams like California and Auburn struggled in one-score games, despite having positive turnover margins. This raises the question of whether their struggles were due to poor execution or simply bad luck. In the case of Auburn, their offense was unable to score enough points to win close games, despite having a strong defense.
One thing that many people don't realize is that luck tends to even out over time. This means that teams that have been unlucky in one-score games may see a reversal of fortune in the future. However, this doesn't mean that they will automatically become champions. It simply means that their luck may start to shift in their favor.
Looking ahead to the 2026 season, it's clear that teams will need to be prepared for the ups and downs of one-score games. While some teams may have been lucky in the past, others may have been unlucky. The key will be to identify which teams are truly skilled and which are simply benefiting from good fortune. Only time will tell which teams will rise to the top and which will struggle to keep their heads above water.
